Deutsche Küchenmöbelindustrie wächst verhaltener

2019 begann für die deutsche Küchenmöbelindustrie vor dem Hintergrund einer äußerst volatilen Entwicklung im Vorjahr. Denn 2018 war nach einem starken Wachstum im ersten Halbjahr ein deutlicher Rückgang der Auftragseingänge im 2. Halbjahr gefolgt. Durch hohe Auftragsbestände in den Unternehmen noch bis zum Ende des ersten Halbjahres 2018 hatte sich der eingangs genannte Auftragsrückgang allerdings umsatzseitig kaum ausgewirkt. So konnte die deutsche Küchenmöbelindustrie das Jahr 2018 mit einem erfreulichen Umsatzwachstum von +5,5 % abschließen.

Umsatzzuwachs im Ausland doppelt so hoch wie im Inland

Diese Entwicklung hat sich 2019 abgeschwächt: Im ersten Halbjahr realisierte die Branche ein nur leichtes Umsatzwachstum von per 30.6.2019 in Höhe von +1,4 %. Wie schon im Vorjahr hat sich das Auslandsgeschäft dabei erneut besser entwickelt als das Inlandsgeschäft. Per 30. Juni 2019 lag der Umsatzzuwachs im Auslandsgeschäft bei +3,8 %, während das im Inlandsgeschäft um -0,2 % zurückgegangen ist. Innerhalb der Zielregionen im Export dominiert weiterhin die Euro-Zone.

Position in Hauptabsatzmärkten der Eurozone erfolgreich ausgebaut

Die Umsätze der deutschen Küchenmöbelindustrie in den wichtigsten Auslandsmarkt Frankreich konnten im ersten Halbjahr 2019 gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres um +7,5 % gesteigert werden, in die in der Bedeutung folgenden Niederlande um +4,7 % in die USA um +2,5 %, nach Österreich um +1,3 %. Umsatzverluste musste der Branchenzweig demgegenüber bei den Ausfuhren nach Belgien, in die Schweiz, nach Großbritannien und China hinnehmen.

Trotz rückläufiger Wachstumszahlen keine Rezessionsgefahr

Für die künftige Entwicklung ist der VdDK vorsichtig, denn momentan scheinen sich die Rahmenbedingungen zu verschlechtern. Im 1

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. Halbjahr 2019 sind die Baugenehmigungen zurückgegangen. Auch deutet sich im europäischen Kontext eine Abschwächung der Konjunktur an. So ist die Entwicklung der Auftragseingänge 2019 zwar weiterhin positiv, allerdings schwächelnd. Die Zuwächse sind von +8,7 % im Januar unter Schwankungen bis August auf +3,1 % zurückgegangen.

Zuversicht für laufendes Jahr – Konjunktur zunehmend inlandsgestützt

Dass die Ursache für diese Entwicklung im Wesentlichen in einer abflauenden Konjunktur in vielen Exportregionen der deutschen Küchenmöbelindustrie liegt, zeigt die Entwicklung der Auftragseingänge bezogen auf Durchschnittspreise – gesplittet nach In- und Ausland: Im Inland war die Volumenentwicklung schlechter als die Entwicklung der Auftragseingänge in Euro, was steigende Durchschnittspreise bedeutet. Im Auslandsgeschäft jedoch ist es genau umgekehrt.

Für das 2. Halbjahr 2019 prognostiziert der VdDK eine schwächere Konjunktur aufgrund einer rückläufigen Entwicklung im Auslandsgeschäft. Im Ergebnis erwartet der Interessensverband der deutschen Küchenmöbelindustrie trotzdem weiteres Wachstum per 31.12.2019 für den Branchenzweig in einer Größenordnung von ca. zwei Prozent.

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